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20121207
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CNBC
Dec 3, 2012 6:00am EST
with the fiscal cliff. have a credible down payment on the tax and spending side. bridge to a grand bargain next year. the fiscal cliff is the symptom. structural deficit is the disease. we need to learn from australia, canada, new zealand, sweden. we need to do it next year. >> all right. >> get dr. dave to washington right away so that we avoid what cramer on "meet the press" this weekend had great line. he said on january 8th when the reporting starts, there will be a foot race to fire people if we don't get this cliff taken care of which is why if we're going over the
CNBC
Dec 3, 2012 6:00pm EST
whipsawing up and down, based on fears about fiscal cliff. and hopes that we might get a possible deal to bridge the fiscal cliff in washington. but through the period these ten growth stocks have held up surprisingly well. i say surprising, because these stocks all had huge gains going into the fourth quarter. and with the fiscal cliff looming, many investors have been selling their biggest winners to take advantage of the low capital gains tax that will likely go away come january. if we get a positive resolution to the fiscal cliff. you'll want to buy these stocks hand over fist. because then they'll really be air to roar. how have the anounted names done? >> amazon starteded at 259, pulled back to 220. before rebounding to 250, where it is right now. google has been pounded. it went from over 760 to below 660, but it's rebounded to 695. mastercard and visa, they took 25-point dives. i told to you buy them into weakness. falling from 475 to 450, and valued to 487. great ones to buy now. a dozen points where above where i recommended. that's it win. visa has moved up nyely from 136 t
CNBC
Dec 4, 2012 4:00pm EST
will hunker down, particularly are the whole fiscal cliff story hanging. even if it goes over, which i predict it will -- >> so do i. >> diana, what are you seeing? >> in the high ends where dolly works, of course it's going to have a big effect. let's keep this in perspective when we look at the housing recovery. homes price ed over $1 million were just 1.7% of sales in october. this is a minuscule amount when you look at the overall housing market and the recovery. that's why we're not seeing prices come down. also, remember the high end was hit the hardest in the housing crash. if you bought your home, your multimillion dollar home five, four, even three years aerks your price has probably come down so much that you're not really looking at any capital gains when you finally do sell this home. >> that's a really good point. it is a small portion of the overall real estate market. >> without a question. >> what are you expecting in terms of pricing? when will we see prices start coming down? >> well, we may see it come down in pockets. for example, the upper east side, there's a lot of devel
CNBC
Nov 30, 2012 3:00pm EST
the fiscal cliff mess. the dow is down right now for the month. it's pretty close, though. the s&p and the nasdaq are on track for winning months. here's how we stand now. a bit of volatility. not as much as we've seen lately. i will point out there's a rebalancing of a major international index occurring on the close today, so we're going to get a bunch of volume, maybe more volatility. we'll watch that through the final hour. right now the dow is down 24 points at 12,997. we're back below 13,000 at this hour. the nasdaq, as we said, positive for the month, is down 8.5 points right now. still above 3,000 at 3,003 and change. the s&p 500 is down three points. a little selling here in the beginning of the last hour, now at 1412. as we head into the last month of the year and closer to that fiscal cliff, how should you be positioning yourself right now? let's find out in our "closing bell" exchange today. mark, are you trying to look past this or trying to play the volatility right now that we're experiencing these days? >> no, for our clients, when we're managing money for our cli
CNBC
Dec 5, 2012 5:00pm EST
to or farther from the fiscal cliff. and doubling down on dividends. we've got an out of the box ets flight that can get you in on the pay day windfall that's taking shareholders by storm. plus, linked-in gets original. the executive editor will reveal why the company's move into original content could be a game changer. we'll get to those trades in a minute. let's get to the top story right away. apple misses the rally. the dow closed at a one month high but the trouble continues for apple posting its worst day in nearly four years. the stock falling back into bear market territory weighing on the nasdaq throughout the entire session in terms of price action, terrible. pretty heavy volumes closing two pennies off the low of the session deep. >> it was terrible. i'm trying to be measured here because i understand how -- >> you don't want to insult apple. >> that's not what we're attempt to go do. we're trying to help them. last night to a person we thought it would go lower. we didn't do that to hurt people, we did it because that's what we felt. with that said, it was not a good day. the f
CNBC
Dec 3, 2012 11:00pm EST
in before you buy any more. this stock will go down on a fiscal cliff situation. that might be the chance to buy the rest. "mad money" is back after the break. >>> every now and then a piece research comes along and blows your mind. forces you to reexamine assumptions you thought were etched in stone. that's how i feel about today's incredible goldman sachs upgrade of dell. not from hold to buy. but from sell to buy. initially i dismissed this piece, written by old hand bill shoep as sophistry. i was reacting to the headline report of the change of recommendation. what makes me so intrigued now? first there's nothing like being right and boy has he been right about this one. he took dell to a sell two years ago. stock dropped 31% versus a 14% gain in the s&p 500. if that doesn't grab your attention, i don't know what will. second he's not making outrageous claims with the upgrade, the stock was at $9 when he made the call and he's using a $13 target. shoep has been very much against investing in the deep-value hardware plays, and he's felt that forever. he's been all over the shift in mob
CNBC
Dec 2, 2012 6:00am EST
to decay pretty hard over the next month. especially if really things settle down in the fiscal cliff debate. >> this is countertrench rate. if you are doing a spread you want it to be a spread. the second thing is you don't want to risk a lot to make a little bit. mike is not doing that. he has almost a coin flip which is what you want to do. again, a counter trend trade. >> one more time here on the stocks versus options button. that could be priceless, as in you could lose all your money. shorting any stock carries unlimited risk. mike's call spread sale can make money and defines the risk to just $300. not bad. our thanks as always to carter braxton worth. got a question send us a tweet. the address is @cnbcoptions. we'll answer it in our web extra right after the show on our website you'll find trade updates and great trader blogs, as well. >>> coming up next which of these stocks do options traders see you paying a special dividend? scott nations will name names. here is what else is coming up. >>> you can call him an apple genius. mike's trade made money whether the stock went
CNBC
Nov 30, 2012 6:00pm EST
that it goes down the fiscal cliff monday. every day is fiscal cliff tuesday, wednesday, thursday. you get the picture. anyway, you should pull the trigger here to buy it here if the fiscal cliff does what i'm afraid of. brown foreman reports wednesday. this is an interesting one. why? because goldman downgraded it to sell. just last night. i've seen this movie. they were wrong last time. they'll be wrong again. i'm going to bet them a bottle of jack daniels that will be the case. in fact i'll bet them a case of jack daniels that will be the case. if they're close, as we told you we like asina. and i would be willing to be a buyer of that niche retailer ahead of this quarter because of some merger gains i think we'll hear about. but again only on news of setbacks to the fiscal cliff talks. we're not going to go in and buy anything these days. you'll get some representative congressman, senator come on say you stupid idiot. you bought stock and i'm talking on a microphone. i'm sending the stock market down because there's no progress. we have not one but two huge analyst days next week. onl
CNBC
Dec 4, 2012 12:00pm EST
, the fiscal cliff that you can live with. we've had china come, the chinese markets are down. our markets are not believing that. europe continues to worsen so there are lots of issues out there, lots of reasons to be negle negative plus corporate earnings. i remain cautious. >> the former chief economist and vice president biden, tony worked in the bush 43 white house, both cnbc contributors. good to see you both today. is the white house going to accept anything but tax rates going up? >> well, they've never completely closed the door on that. >> it's like maybe just a crack, and i mean it's a small crack. >> yeah, and it's a very small crack and it might even be closing. they are very much about the high higher rates. the thing that i think the white house is having legitimate problems with in this new offer from john boehner is the lack of specificity. tony and i argued this a lot. he makes a great point. do we have to argue about rates versus base? is we can talk about base. and at this point republicans have done the same thing mitt romney was doing. $800 billion in new revenues fro
CNBC
Nov 29, 2012 6:00pm EST
do go over the fiscal cliff that will take the whole market down, so you put this on a shopping list that could give you a terrific entry point. i think the cycle is so darn strong, it can trump the ills of the fiscal cliff, at least once it's sorted out. ultimately the cliff will be sorted out. of the three housing-related ipos, you need to be careful with zillow and trulia, the only one i will endorse is real ogy, and only if it comes down. how about michael in california, please? michael. >> caller: boo-yah to you, jim. with a solid dividend that pays monthly at almost a 16% yield, the current valuation a dollar benine book value, isn't a.r.r. a great value? >> you know what? i have thought it was. this is another one of those real estate mortgages reits, that i have somewhat been mystified about the price performance. someone asked about this on the street, and i said i think it should be doing better. i agree, i think it's an okay buy. john in oregon, please. >> caller: boo-yah, jimmy, how are you? >> boo-yah back at you. >> caller: residential 4078 builders, i bought in about s
CNBC
Nov 30, 2012 1:00pm EST
the fiscal cliff having some reaction in this market. and when it all comes down to the final day of the month, we're looking at gold prices that are only slightly lower than where they started out this month. but we are looking at volumes that have been very significant in this past week. in fact, record volume on tuesday for gold futures. a lots of volatility in that session for sure. we're also looking at what is happening in terms of some of the gold coin sales. those have been very strong for november and in fact, we're looking at the strongest sales for november that we have seen in 14 years. and it is not only retail investors wanting to buy coins. they also want to hold the gold etf, the largest gold etf, the gld, has set gains for four straight months. this month no different. right now we are looking at a record level of holdings for the g l gld. >>> trading action on the floor of the new york stock exchange, bob pisani is here. >> what's interesting, we talked earlier in the day headline risk going into the weekend, do you want to go long when anybody can go on the sund
CNBC
Dec 5, 2012 6:00am EST
kicking exercise down the road would be better than the fiscal cliff? >> that's a tough one. the toothless can kicking exercise is hard. you've all helped make this a significantly watched issue. >> you want a pen? >> i'm happy to have a pen. >> you don't have yours on. >> i forgot. >> i've got mine prominently displayed. >> you forgot a couple days last week. >> we'll get you one. did we finally send them out? >> i saw some people got them. >>> when we come back, we'll have much more from our guest host today, greg fleming. but first, a new frontier of luxury. [ penélope ] i found the best cafe in the world. nespresso. where i never have to compromise on anything. ♪ where just one touch creates the perfect coffee. where every cappuccino and latte is only made with fresh milk. and where the staff is exceptionally friendly. ♪ nespresso. what else? >>> welcome back. everybody. the dow futures are up about 40 points this morning. s&p 500 are up by more than four and a half points. boeing says that u.s. regulators have ordered the entire fleet of 787 jets to be inspected for a possible fu
CNBC
Dec 3, 2012 4:00pm EST
end of the day, down 63 points. more on the republicans' counterproposal on the fiscal cliff coming your way as we get under way with the second hour of the "closing bell" with maria bartiromo. i'll see you tomorrow. >>> hello, 4:00 on wall street. do you know where your money is? welcome back to "closing bell." i'm maria bartiromo on the floor of the new york stock exchange. happy monday to you. this market beginning the new month lower as the gop today puts out a counteroffer on the fiscal cliff. take a look at how we're finishing the day on the wall street. dow jones under water with decline about 60 point. 12,966. last trade on the index. nasdaq gave up some ground today, to the tune of eight points finishing at 3002 on the session. and the s&p 500 down 6.70 points at 1409. >>> december a historically good month for the markets. the s&p has risen 8 of the past 1 years in the final month of yeert. with fears of the looming fiscal cliff, can the trend continue? we're bringing in mike from yahoo! finance and cnbc and yahoo! have a business alliance to share and co-produce editorial
CNBC
Dec 4, 2012 5:00pm EST
to down about 30. that is primarily because people are worried about the fiscal cliff. we don't think that the outcome is completely negatively priced into the market. that is more or less where we stand on that. i do think that there is a couple of great trends for next year which includes europe with the recovery there as it relates to corporate restructuring and banks selling assets. and we also think that there will be funds like john paulson's recovery fund to do well. >> as we head into the end of the year, is there no chase per performance? is there no pressure on the part of hedge funds to make up for that in the last few weeks of the year? >> there is no question that there is pressure. i think that you saw net long exposure widen out and get into the 50s but with the rhetoric coming out of washington now if you asked me three weeks ago if i thought a deal was going to get done i would have said yes. it does seem like a chicken fight here towards the end. if a deal does not get done that will have a very negative effect on markets. that is our opinion reflected on a lot of th
CNBC
Dec 5, 2012 9:00am EST
't they know about the fiscal cliff? >> they look to be down 10%. >> we'll watch it. as people know in this market, many times the stock price has been going up. we'll keep an eye on this. it may be throwing people. what does it say about copper overall and the price of the metal. >> i worry, by the way, watch energy 21. this is exxi. another company that bought old properties. one of the things that's happening that's driving this, okay, is that there's new technology. american technology that's able to access oil that the big guys have given up on whether it be exxon given up on energy 21 has or bp and it turns out that these fines may have been bigger so pxp takes advantage of the fact there's new technology. pxp is a deal maker but ready to trade because capital gains taxes are going up. could be a fiscal cliff. the gulf is hotter than it's ever been even a few years ago it was ice cold. >> big story in the journal about exploration in this country. production 15-year high. brand new chapter here. look at the bottom of your screen. citigroup is cutting 11,000 jobs. we want to ge
CNBC
Dec 5, 2012 2:00pm EST
. that was awesome, guys. that was 16 years ago today. >>> now the fiscal cliff is very real and possibly very expensive overall. will going over it -- i mean just going over the thing -- really destroy consumer spending? let's use some numbers. all right. americans pay an average of $90 a month for their smartphone service. that ipad will set you back $400. yeah, one time but it is $400. get this -- the average car payment in america is now $452 a month. average price, $31,000. the tax hike on most americans if we go over the fiscal cliff and taxes go up across the board, $167 a month. that's about the same as two people's smartphones at home. that's not even a bill they had ten years ago. let's talk more about it. joining us, jared bernstein, senior fellow at the center on budget and policy priorities. nicole wu, director of domestic policy at the center for economic and policy research. jared, i'm not suggesting we go over it but i think you get my point. we spend a lot of money on a lot things, some of which we need, some of which we don't. why would a 200-month tax raise destroy the econo
CNBC
Dec 4, 2012 3:00pm EST
down. >> are you worried about the fiscal cliff? how is business going? you're an entrepreneur in your own right. i want to talk to you about business, but how you preparing for the cliff? >> well, there's no way one can be preparing. you have to be think about uncertainty as you make your investment decision. in terms of fiscal policy, obviously there's a great goal between the republicans and the democrats. at least there's a bit of talk on the table now. hopefully that can start to narrow. we're certainly still living in uncertain times. we're cognizant of that as we inves invest. >> as a small business owner, how would you characterize business right now? your jewelry line, small business activities pmplg. >> i've had the good fortune of creating a fashion brand. i have jewelry, shoes, handbags, et cetera. i found a niche within the market hthat's looking for affordable price points. it's really been resonating very well. >> sounds like you're on style, actually. ivanka, good to have you on the program. we look forward to you ringing the bell and lighting the christmas tree out her
CNBC
Nov 29, 2012 12:00pm EST
extended, scott, on december 23rd. this is going to go right down to december 21st in avoiding the fiscal cliff. don't think anything differently. >> today one of the streets most bullish market watchers is is making a pretty bold prediction saying the s&p 500 is going to rally 17% by the end of next year. tony dwire joins us now. good to have you. >> thanks. >> i'm wondering how you're dealing with your predictions and your forecasting on the markets when you have such gyrations due to what's going on with the fiscal cliff. >> well, truthfully, you know, hopefully what makes me a little bit different on the street, i really try not to guess. what they're going to say, it's impossible. what i fall back to is what's the tactical outlook? we had a nice 5% move off of that low. our view is you've always retested that kind of intermediate term low. we're looking for a little pullback. ultima ultimately, don't fight the fed and don't fight the tape. when i talk to people, you kind of think about it. why isn't it follow the fed or follow the tape? because every cycle we think the fed is not goi
CNBC
Dec 6, 2012 4:00pm EST
and your meeting and really zero in on the fiscal cliff. before we do that, i want to get to the situation around hewlett-packard and autonomy. of course, hp taking a massive write down on the acquisition of autonomy. ceo meg whitman throwing deloitte under the bus in some sense because the firm was among those charged with examining the books before the deal. what can you tell us about what you did in terms of overseeing the books at autonomy and what do you say now that she's charging this fraud? >> sure, maria. unfortunately for us, that matter has been turn the over to investigation and the authorities. believe it or not, that's one of the things i'm not on the hot seat about. that's part of the u.k. member firm. >> of course, this is an issue at the form. it's a big deal. >> it's important to us. unfortunately, we can't comment on that. our member firm has put out a statement. we believe we held up to professional standards. >> during that time, there was no questioning on the part of hewlett-packard in terms of saying, hey, did you find anything? it just seems like it came up from no
CNBC
Nov 29, 2012 4:00pm EST
much. >>> fiscal cliff negotiations spinning the markets up and down like a yo-yo. i'll get reaction next from real estate guru barry sternlicht. also, we'll discuss how he's putting his investment firm to work. wait until you hear what he has his sights set on. >>> and stick around for my exclusive interview with the chevron ceo. we'll talk about whether dividends are in the pipeline or a big acquisition on the horizon. >>> and is it time to kill the $1 billion? the case is being made today on why $1 coins make more sense. do they really? stick around for that heated debate comes up. you're watching "closing bell" on cnbc. we're back in a minute. at u.s. trust, our expertise extends well beyond investment advice and research analysis. it includes proprietary offerings like our eldercare program, which helps provide for those who came before you. and our financial empowerment program, which helps prepare those who come next. resources like these have made us the number-one trust company. that's why generations of families have come to us to help build their own legacies. [ male annou
CNBC
Dec 6, 2012 3:00pm EST
. that tells a story right there. if we go across the fiscal cliff, we will have an economic contraction or slow down at best. >> how are things looking right now ahead of the holidays? i'm sure your company is real busy, fedexing gifts. what are your expectations for this holiday season? >> well, you know, the 300,000 wonderful teammates of fedex are working very hard. we publicly forecast a couple weeks ago that on the 10th we would move 19 million shipments through our network. that's up about 11% year over year. e-commerce is causing a significant amount of growth. retail sales are going to be up some place in the 3.5% and 4%. we think absent going over the cliff and absent tax reform, u.s. gdp around 2% next year. worldwide, about 2.5%. >> real quick, we have to ask you your plans. you had said at some point you would leave the ceo role as soon as 2013. is that still in the cards? what's the succession plan? >> well, we have a strong team at fedex that manages the company. the strategic management committee of nine people. lots of people that can do my job without missing a beat. i
CNBC
Dec 6, 2012 6:00am EST
the fiscal cliff. consumer confidence has remind high. business confidence is down so the first thing we want to know, that's not the right chart, we want to do on whether or not people heard about the fiscal cliff. have you heard of it? comparing it to some of the other times people asked about news event, there's the trayvon martin shooting in the street, occupy wall street, 82%, facebook ipo 7 %, 70% of the republic has heard it compared to the fiscal crisis in greece, 63% had heard it. in that number 36% had read a lot about it or heard a lot about it. do they believe a solution is likely? our numbers different from other poles. americans are more optic. first of all see what they think, unlikely 73% back in november when we asked about the debt program would there be an agreement, 73% saying that, now 44%. the number you want to think is 4% to 44% thinks a solution is likely. who thinks it's likely, that's interesting and driving this number. he can break it down by party. look at what we find, republicans 52-42, independents, i come back here, there we go, independents 47-32 and it's re
CNBC
Dec 5, 2012 6:00pm EST
one didn't come down and hit me over the head and knock me out. apple. if we're going off the fiscal cliff, we know capital gains tax rates are going higher, right? right? that's obvious. do you think the republicans have the power to keep those capital gains rates down? apple's become a referendum on the president's power. right now he has the upper hand, then he can really roll them and intends to do so. it's reasonable to take some profits so you can pay the tax man more now rather than later. it's a wimpy thing, it's logical, makes perfect economic sense. so the stock gets hammered. it makes sense to sell it. but let's be less emotional and even clinical about this one. first, divide apple's share price by ten, now you have a stock that got crushed down to $54. when you do that, it isn't all that scary, is it? where does the pessimism fit in? when we have to endure the pin the tail on the selloff game, what excuses for the selloff myriad alibis i hear from today's action. apple's losing share to google, it doesn't have the right phones in europe, nokia's making a comeback, the mi
CNBC
Dec 2, 2012 7:30pm EST
the cliff in order for you to have a negative impact on the economy. even if you are coming down a fiscal slope with increase in some of the tax rates, for instance, expiring the payroll tax cuts to expire or minimize taxes to hit some people. high tax residents new york, california may find some of the deductibility of taxes is restricted. all of that is going to have a negative impact on consumption. we have seen the third quarter show that consumption increase is slower than expected. that's going to get accentuated as we go into the new year, which is why i think even if there is an agreement the impact is going to be quite negative. >> jim, you disagree. you call it a mole hill. what do you mean? >> i think it's sold as a cliff as if we're going to fall entirely off and have this massive fiscal tightening next year. what is more likely is a modest tax hike and spending cuts and most things extended and we live to fight for another day. i personally think we will have fiscal cliffs over and over the next several years. if you have a modest fiscal tightening next year, it's nothing new
CNBC
Dec 6, 2012 4:00am EST
? >> yeah, i think while we're now focused on a lot of the down side risks not only from the fiscal cliff but obviously also from the eurozone crisis, we may have overlooked some of these up side potential for next year. so if we get a favorable resolution for the fiscal cliff, i think we can see interest rates move up quite sharply. that would be because expectations for growth could be much higher, so if growth is around the 2% in the first half of the year, we could be haufing over the 3% range in the second half of the rear. that would mean higher interest rates and that could be a very poor result for top quality bonds. >> and when you're talk about interest rates, you're talking about market rates as opposed to fed rates, right? >> the treasury rate, baseline underwhich say corporate bonds move. >> okay. you mentioned how much. so what would be the long term impact of that? >> in a very short amount of time, you could see say the ten year treasury yelled jump from current range of around 1.6% quickly up near 2.7% towards the middle of the year, we saw during previous fed quantitativ
CNBC
Nov 29, 2012 6:00am EST
on optimism around the idea that we could reach some sort of a deal to overt the fiscal cliff. the dow closing more than 100 points higher after being down by more than that during the session. a swing like that hasn't happened since october 2011. u.s. equity futures at this hour actually higher. up by about 65 for the dow, s&p more than 7, and as joe mentioned, the fiscal cliff is still the focus. today treasury secretary tim geithner will be meeting with congressional leaders. first harry reid at about 10:00 and then followed by a session with john boehner, eric cantor, paul ryan and chairman of the house's tax writing ways and means committee dave camp. also lunch with republican senate minority leader mitch mcconnell and nancy pelosi. yesterday a number of high profile corporate leaders met with president obama at the white house, including lloyd blankfein. >> both sides have acknowledge there had is revenue concessions and entitlement concessions. in fact if you listen to it, again, i'm not a master of the political art here, but i would say if you have these point of views in a business
CNBC
Nov 29, 2012 5:00pm EST
happen out of the fiscal cliff negotiations that could cause you to ratchet down that expectation? >> sure. so here's the worst case scenario. we go over the cliff for an extended period of time and that a basically throws us into a global recession, a u.s. recession that bleeds into a global recession. in that case, you know, i would not necessarily be as bullish as i am today. but i actually think that we get our act together. we come up with a reasonable solution. maybe a messy kind of multistage fix. but we do get to some kind of a point of clarity come mid next year. at that point, i think what drives the market higher is that corporations who are sitting on tons of cash actually start to spend it and do something interesting and growth acreative with all the capital they've been hoarding. >> when you say they'll get to something -- how long do you think they have? i think they really don't have very long at all after the beginning of the year. >> i agree. i think the longer they wait, the worse it gets. what i think happens is the market -- >> but they can do it retroactivel
CNBC
Dec 6, 2012 1:00pm EST
this before, haven't we? what do average americans want to see in a fiscal cliff solution. we've got the exclusive results of our exclusive cnbc all-america economic survey. >>> now to everybody's all-american, sue herera standing by at the nyse. >> you're sweet, ty. thanks. >>> we're a little bit on the downside. we really kind of retraced a little bit on the dow jones industrial average. previous to this we were solidly in the green in all three of the major market indices. the dow now down 14 1/2 points. nasdaq up eight. the s&p is down just a fraction. of course we are also watching apple on the back of yesterday's drop. the stock today is traded up $4.82. that's just under a percentage move to the plus side. it's rebounding, still at bear market territory, however. it has lost over $50 billion in market cap over the past few days alone. our bob pisani joins me here on the floor of the nyse. what are you hearing from traders? the market is drifting a little bit. the focus is on apple. there seems to be a little bit of enthusiasm that it can come back to the up side. >> we were up
CNBC
Dec 3, 2012 12:00pm EST
the key debate, right? and i think people could be afraid around the fiscal cliff or around supply issues on oil or europe, you know, looking pretty weak. so there's a number of things that could spook people. but i would say the numbers have to come down a lot for 2013. >> adam, sounds like you're more optimistic on china. where do you come out on the commodity side? where would you be investing if at all in that group? >> well, s&p mandate, s&p 500 focused. and materials are 3.5% of the s&p, two-thirds of that is chemicals. so i don't have to make a huge bet on the metals and mining side. and as we wrote about last week and again today, i guess i'm a little bit of a chicken china bull, you know. i'm not so far out in the efficient frontier there to go straight to steel stocks. and that bet. because i still think there is some uncertainty. i feel confident what's in the u.s. market is fear about china. but i would rather play it from some of the quality industrials where i feel there could be some other things that helped them whether it's -- you know, u.s. housing and other things, not
CNBC
Dec 3, 2012 5:00pm EST
selloff i would be a buyer. >> we are all in fiscal cliff hanger mode. are the tax fears overblown on this? a lot of investors are making the case that taxes are going up. according to recent commentary in the "new york times" our next guest says investors should relax. joining us is founder of sea breeze partners. let's get into the nuances of this year. the fears may be overblown. can you see that there will be an impact on the markets? >> i think the impact is less than 1%. i don't believe that either the tax or the fiscal cliff are the cliffs that we should be fretting about. we should be fretting about the earnings cliff. >> at the same time you make the case that investors won't be impacted in terms of behavior because of taxes. historical studies have shown this and shown that companies won't change the way they will treat cash and dividend payoffs. we have seen oracle accelerating. we are seeing an impact on behavior here that goes in the face of what has historically been thrown. >> let me explain it shortly. the government has tried to keep the capital gains and the dividend tax
CNBC
Dec 6, 2012 5:00pm EST
and democrats will kick the can down the road. and, remember, the fiscal cliff is not really a cliff. even if we come to january 1st, it's more of a hill and they actually have a little bit more time than people are giving them credit for. and that's why i think the markets are not overreacting right now. >> there's this notion that you can go over the cliff and sort of go back, grandfather it in. but at the same time, for a company like general dynamics, at what point do you start getting concerned it will, in fact, at least impact that quarter? >> well, that's a good point. it certainly could impact the quarter if it goes for weeks or months, absolutely. and i think maybe even the bigger factor is i think you talked about it which is there will be volatility as we approach the cliff and go over the cliff. even if it's a few days or few weeks. there will be a lot of volatility in the markets. that could be buying opportunities for all of us that have some dry powder for which to deploy. we tend to be more long-term holders. we tend to buy stocks and hold them for years rather than weeks and mon
CNBC
Nov 30, 2012 9:00am EST
about the fiscal cliff not working, it's a mess, it's never going to happen and then you wake up and you're down 15 points monday morning. that's a problem figuring out what to do over the weekend. it could go the other way. generally it's a little bit more on the gloomy side. then you have the problem with december. we're going into the last month. today is the last day of november. people are behind the curve. a shocking number of people i spoke to are below whatever their benchmark is. do you lighten up? do you stay long what you got? it's hard to maneuver around because you need to get outperformance. you need to get alpha in the month of december and a lot of guys that's in short supply right now. there's tough decisions that have to be made in the next couple of days. meantime, we saw futures weaken as we got some of the personal spending and personal income data and personal spending weaker than expected. even accounting for sandy, consumers looking iffy. that's impacting thinking as well. did you see what happened in japan overnight? everybody in japan has become a stimulus guru.
CNBC
Dec 6, 2012 2:00pm EST
-store sales were down last plont. it actually blamed the fiscal cliff in part, as well as super storm sandy. the ceo said consumers were distracted by the cliff. the storm and the election. staying with clothing, vera bradley -- well, handbags. those shares also tanking and they are blaming sandy as well but also noted their holiday season is off to a slow start. jeffri jeffries raising the tart fro tm $22 to $20. not all bad news. finisar, higher demand for tranceivers. what else? the stock down 17% year to date. finally, zynga. take a look at shares. they are up nearly 7% because they filed for a gambling license. that is right. the virtual game company wants to become a real poker company. let's bring in julia boorstin with more on this zynga story. seems like if they get it, a completely transformative thing. >> it would be transformative and zynga's definitely pushing forward with its plans to eventually make money from online gambling but the key thing here is that this is really a ways off. the stock soared as much as 9% higher this morning after it came out that zynga applied for re
CNBC
Dec 5, 2012 3:00pm EST
're down to 26 days. bob, can you really make a deal on the fiscal cliff when the negotiation is out in public? do you think we'll get a deal done? that's what everybody wants to know. >> if everybody thinks we ought to get to a deal, we'll get to a deal. the public part of this, obviously, it's different. you got to get 435 people to vote in the house and 100 in the senate. different than getting a board to approve a fundamentally, getting to a deal is about understanding expectations. this public thing is a very good point. it couldn't be different. when two ceos are meeting to do a merger negotiation, one guy shows up in jeans, and the other guy has sunglasses on. they meet at the o'hare hilton. they don't want anybody to know about it. >> wait a minute. let's point this out. go ahead, jeff. >> the risk is taking the worst part of what wall street does, which is this negotiation of do a deal, do a deal, do a deal, do any deal. that's what happened with hp-autonomy. that's what you don't want to take from wall street in this situation. >> let's face it. a ceo is judged on success b
CNBC
Dec 6, 2012 9:00am EST
was one of those days, show a lot of americans don't even know about the fiscal cliff. paychecks are going to go down, a million layoffs in the defense industry. no one seems to care right now. it's bad. >> you know what we have going for us? the grid, december 17 announced -- on a seasonal basis, they have reiterated once again that it doesn't have the demand to be sold year round, but starting a week from monday. >> i don't buy that. i think they do it because whenever they have mcrib, they're just fighting traffic for mcrib. there are places in the world where the mcrib is on the menu all the time. in case you're there on your vacation. >> i'm learning here all the time. i'm always learning. >> switch from the bacon cheese-inator. [ bell rings ] . >> celebrating the ground breaking of hotels in new york. we'll be speaking to the ceo in this hour. >> whitehorse is an interesting story. >> white house, delayed over at the nasdaq, the new york stock exchange puts out a release reiterating 16 companies have announced or moved to the big board so for this year. you're starting to wonder who
CNBC
Dec 4, 2012 1:00pm EST
on the dow jones industrial average, 27 days until america goes over that fiscal cliff. the president just finished answering questions on the issue after meeting with governors at the white house and our political correspondent, john harwood is live at the white house and eamon javers is talking with key congressional players on those talks. john, first to you. >> reporter: the president talked to our colleagues at bloomberg and talked about the republican offer from speaker boehner on the fiscal cliff resolution. he said it was out of balance because the speaker has not agreed to rate increases but the president identified a two-step process by which he is hoping still to reach an agreement before the end of the year, if he can get republicans to give on the top rate. he said that first of all, we can't do a fundamental tax reform in the next two weeks. we simply have to have a down payment before the end of the year and then commit to tax and entitlement reform during the year of 2013. he also specified, and i think this is significant, that he thought 300 to $400 billion over ten years
CNBC
Dec 3, 2012 1:00pm EST
now despite those fiscal cliff anxieties. they've been pretty steady throughout the day. the s&p 500 broke above its 50-day moving average, believe it or not. earlier in the day it's backed off a little bit. economic news and new data shows u.s. manufacturing falling to its lowest level in three years. and there is a little nervousness about the president taking to twitter at 2:00 p.m. eastern time to talk about the fiscal cliff negotiations that are going on. but it is the first trading day of the month and some on wall street are getting bullish for year end. it is going to be a december to remember, i predict it. >> i think this is one of the reasons we're holding up so well, because december is the best month of the year and we roll into january which is also a very good month. let me show you some sectors that do especially well in the month of december. there's major sectors here. this is the best performing sectors in the month of december, averaged over the last ten years. you can see it is a diverse group -- health care, telecom, utilities. a lots of people play dividend at
CNBC
Dec 4, 2012 9:00am EST
of the euro. other people feel that everything goes down in a fiscal cliff situation. i mean, commodities are saying we're going to go over the cliff. that's what i think. >> it's interesting. there are these recent reports tallying how many american eagle gold coins americans are buying. is that the ultimate safe haven trade. if americans are buying gold coins in record numbers, the strongest sales since 1998, and it's not just seasonality here. it's interesting. >> i own some. i own silver. >> silver and gold. >> you can buy silver and gold. you can actually -- there's a big markup in coins. the government doesn't help. you can own pieces of silver and pieces of gold. >> do you have some on you right now? >> no, i don't. i have it buried in the backyard. i have it in a vault. never bury your gold in the backyard. >> i'll remember that. thank you for that advice. >> first we have to get backyard. >> el paso electric company celebrating tenth anniversary. yit celebrating its 100th anniversary. want to go straight to mary thompson with breaking news out of fdic. >> this is the fdic's third
CNBC
Dec 4, 2012 6:00am EST
're worried about what happens if we go over the fiscal cliff. play out the scenario for how things would go down if we actually do move past january 1 without an agreement. >> if you get lots of economist projections, you'll see the general view is the economy would have negative growth or a couple percentage points, whatever it is. near term recession impact. and that nt would be good to the economy because it's been moving its way out. what's really after people is will we be serious about fixing the long term problems of america's fiscal situation. basically having more revenue and less expenses so we can get the thing more if line. and that's pre-occupying people because they're worried about the longer term issue. if this doesn't move forward with a solution that actually starts to layout the ground work for the long term issues, it could be potentially disappointing. >> ceos say they have to lay out their plans for what they're planning on doing in january and they have to move forward with the plan that has an assumption that we don't get some sort of a solution. do you hear that fro
CNBC
Dec 5, 2012 1:00pm EST
be apple. >>> to washington now. the soap opera we call the fiscal cliff. before we get to our chief washington john harwood and the president is meeting with another grouch ceos, i need to start with eamon javers on capitol hill where lawmakers are skipping down early for a long weekend. eamon, wasn't thanksgiving just a couple weeks ago? >> it was. let me check michael ichaey cal. you see rank and file members of congress leaving the capitol. they are done for the week. they're headed back loam to their hometown districts. a lot of folks focused on this negotiation right now but the reality is that the negotiations are taking place among just a very few, very high level people. i was talking to a few rank and file members yesterday who said they were frustrated there is not a whole lot for them to do, they are just sitting around here waiting for some break-through in these negotiations. they want something to do on the floor, in their offices and there is not much for them to sink their teeth into. now they're going into their district. leadership is going to stay here and continu
CNBC
Dec 3, 2012 3:00pm EST
point. >> companies are getting more concerned about the fiscal cliff. in fact, you won't believe how many are mentioning in their s.e.c. filings. >>> will the housing comeback fall off the cliff if we don't get our fiscal house in order by the end of the year? the ceo of prudential joins us later. when we got married. i had three kids. and she became the full time mother of three. it was soccer, and ballet, and cheerleading, and baseball. those years were crazy. so, as we go into this next phase, you know, a big part of it for us is that there isn't anything on the schedule. >>> how important is the fiscal cliff to the companies in your portfolio? apparently the answer is very. the blog footnoted counted 279 mentions of the fiscal cliff in s.e.c. filings for the month of november. that compares to 120 mentions of the fiscal cliff in october. there were none last year at this time, by the way. the first time i ever heard the fiscal cliff, first person i heard mention it, you, back in february. i'm wondering, what the heck is she talking about? >> it was in my bedtime reading. obviousl
CNBC
Nov 30, 2012 6:00am EST
on with the global central banks that the point in time. because we're caught. this is a fiscal cliff now. this is a prisoner's dilemma and everybody is staring each other down and we're all sitting at a poker table wondering who has the best cards. >> so what do you think will happen with global central banks? we know the fed will take operation twist and turn it into qe-3-b, i guess. i don't know what you want to call it. but instead of swapping short term for long term debt, it's going to buy long term debt outright. >> printing money, right. >> conventional quantitative easing, printing money, whatever you want to call it. and what are we expecting out of europe? what is this with the 1.30 on the euro, a currency everybody says ought to weaken? >> but there are still people who are when the risk on models take over, they buy the euro. that won't last forever as we're starting to see what's going on in france. but spain is certainly the next issue. they had to push greece out of the way and it's interesting the way they resolved greece was exactly what the germans have leaked to reuter
CNBC
Dec 5, 2012 7:00pm EST
it down, danielle hughes, ceo of divine capital markets. it's very interesting to me. fiscal cliff or not, china, europe, whatever, the s&p 500 up 12.1% year to date. that is a good year. that is an optimistic year. why is that? >> it seems like we're forgetting about that, doesn't it? with all this talk about what's happening going forward and concern about corporate growth. and truly, we're concerned about corporate growth as well because there really hasn't been that long-term information from our government, from our policyholde policyholders, no economic policy in real investment in assets that we've seen. that's going to be a problem going forward, not to mention the global slowdown, and we're hitting the top of corporate profits now. >> so you don't agree with this. you're turning bearish. >> not bearish in a sense of going forward intermittently. we think that most likely, we're going to see some growth hitting in the second quarter of next year. until we get through this fiscal cliff nonsense, until we see some growth coming out of china and europe, i think that -- >> china i thi
CNBC
Dec 6, 2012 6:00pm EST
to get on tv and tell us we don't know what we're doing and going over the fiscal cliff and he's real upset and angry and stuff and then the stocks won't go down 10% because of that senator or congressman or that treasury guy and then you get a chance to buy high-quality companies kept down for washington. let's wait for the next gas bag to grab the mike and we'll get them cheaper. in washington, will you please get out of our way? we've got a genuine boom brewing if only washington would rise above and set it free. "mad money" will be right back. >>> coming up -- fueling the future? there's new data out about the positive impact of natural gas on the u.s. economy and employment. could exporting this domestic power be our ticket to a bright future? and how could you hop aboard the trend? tonight, cramer drills down on the issue with dominion resources ceo. >>> and later, agita over apple. while the most coveted gifts, weigh on investors. should you step in now? or is the worst still to come? don't miss cramer's take. >>> plus -- welcome home? you've seen the headlines. the housing mar
CNBC
Dec 6, 2012 12:00pm EST
gdp report, and a lot of that is fiscal cliff tied to that. when do you see business investments starting to pick up, because we all kind of know the housing story, we know consumers kind of hung in. i think actually the next big upside could be a business investment, if it comes back but when does that come, in your opinion? >> it's a tricky question because there's two dynamics when we talk about business investment, it's capital spending which has a huge tech component, but it's also construction activity because it's building out the commercial infrastructure, health care, roads, et cetera, that associate with capital spending itself. companies can be cautious and we know there are multi, multidecade levels of cautiousness given their cash and where spending is and at some point pure replacement has to take over. that's really what sparked the recovery in housing, we were scrapping so many homes and you had organic growth. i think we're getting to the break point soon. >> tom, let me ask you about a couple of your picks before we run. apple i know you like it, broadcom you wo
CNBC
Dec 4, 2012 6:00pm EST
are polyannas. i think we go into a recession with lots of layoffs and the fiscal cliff was designed to pr compromise. everyone knew about the growth. fewer jobs, larger deficit. as i said last night, it doesn't matter, we can pick our stocks and buy them down. ulta salons, but i want to suggest to other groups that are going to give you bang for the buck, betting that the hope will be squeezed out and the bottom gets put in before a deal is made. why not? we know the auto market is for 11 years now and we have been sweet on ford domestically. what are some of the other key areas. asia already turned. i think europe could be stablized. ford is the one to watch. i'm out blessing it. in europe i'm thinking that i'm excited about ford. we have ample evidence today that i'm right. the rates remained too low. and pricing is moving up in california, nevada, arizona all things we learned from the luxury home builder toll today. that is fine. but what i hadn't heard is a demographic play, how the demographics are going to take over. household formation is unnatural and because of the great resecti
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